DEFENSIVE CATCH PROBABILITY %
The box-bomb has an expected catch probability of less than 50%, and remains the premier attacking choice to retain possession or force an opposition error.
Cross field kicks and regular up and under bombs are further kick types with a relatively low expected catch probability, with the defending team failing to catch the ball from 1 in every 3 kicks.
DEFENSIVE CATCH PROBABILITY %
The hang time of a kick in rugby refers to the duration the ball remains in the air after being kicked.
Our analysis shows the defensive catch probability significantly drops when the hang time is more than 4 seconds and is therefore an important factor in how likely it is a defending team will catch the ball.
DEFENSIVE CATCH PROBABILITY %
Having established box kick bombs and kicks over 4 seconds significantly affect expected catch, how do the two interact.
A box kick bomb of 3-4 seconds has an defensive catch probability of only 53% and when the hang time increases to 4-5 seconds the defensive catch probability drops to 42.9%.
Box kicks with a high hang time made in your own 22m have a 19.7% probability of being caught, but the risk is you concede possession in your own half.
Box kicks with high hang time made between your 22m and halfway line have a 51.2% chance of being caught.
The defensive catch probability drops to only 16.5% from a box kick bomb of 4-5 seconds made between the halfway line and the opposition 22m line.
